Recently, the International Copper Research Organization (ICSG) released its latest forecast on the growth rate of global copper production, pointing out that the growth rate of global copper production in 2024 has been significantly reduced to 0.5%, far below the 3.7% predicted in October last year.
According to ICSG analysis, the slowdown in global copper production growth is mainly attributed to several key factors. Firstly, the production growth rate of some copper mining projects did not meet expectations, which may be due to complex geological conditions, technical difficulties, or funding shortages. Secondly, some projects have experienced delays in production, which further affects the global supply capacity of copper mines. In addition, some copper miners have to adjust and reduce production guidelines to adapt to the current market environment when facing market uncertainty and cost pressures. Finally, the closure of the Cobre copper mine in Panama by First Quantum Mining has also had a certain impact on global copper production.
Although global copper production is facing challenges in the short term, ICSG is optimistic about the market recovery in 2025. It is predicted that with the operation or expansion of some important copper mining projects, the growth of global copper production will accelerate. In particular, the production of the Malmeskoye copper mine in Russia and the third phase expansion project of the Kamoa Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo will bring new growth points to the global copper market. In addition, the expansion and operation of some small and medium-sized mines will also have a positive impact on the growth of global copper production.
It is worth noting that although global copper production is expected to accelerate in 2025, the market may still face some challenges in the short term. For example, due to slower than expected production growth or delayed production of some copper mining projects, global copper supply may still be limited to some extent in the short term.
